Halo 3 Greater Than Spider Man 3?
By Steve on Sunday, September 9th, 2007 at 11:26 PM PST In Gamer Life, Games Industry
In the coming weeks, the onslaught of Halo 3 media coverage will undoubtedly cause an overload in our circuits. Some of us will probably reach the point of breakdown and finally snap (and many of us already have). Despite the love/hate extremes Halo 3 brings out of all of us, there is one underlying truth found here: Video Games are becoming the penchant of the entertainment industry. Thus, it is not surprising when analysts are predicting that Halo 3 will be bigger than this year’s Hollywood blockbuster, Spider Man 3:
Microsoft expects “Halo 3″ — the conclusion to the sci-fi, man-vs.-alien juggernaut, to best the $151-million opening weekend of “Spider-Man 3″ in a single day.
Let’s get one thing straight here: Halo 3 = video game ; Spider Man 3 = movie. And if you still think Halo 3 is some freak accident, then this might change your tune:
In July alone, video games accounted for $925.5 million in sales nationwide.
Who said this summer was a slump for video games? There is an obvious trend here. Video games are fast becoming THE media standard for entertainment. Should Hollywood be scared? Probably not. However, ignoring this juggernaut of an industry would be a major oversight. I expect in the coming years we will see Hollywood more or less melding forces with the video game industry. And likewise, video game developers and publishers will be exploiting the resources and talents of Hollywood. It won’t happen overnight, and it probably won’t result in a glorious utopia envisioned; however, I have a hard time believing the two would ever be at odds. There is a lot of money and far too many resources to exploit.
Look at it this way, at least with consoles you don’t have to worry about obnoxious smacktards talking and giggling during your movie. Plus, as found with DVDs, you can stop, divert attention, and then pickup where you left off. In case you haven’t been paying attention, you will notice the 360 & PS3 are true first generation media center slash game devices. Not only that, but each are pushing the HiDef era as well (some would argue better than the standalone equivalents). This is something that directly competes against the movie theater business, since essentially you are bringing the movie theater experience to home with little or no compromise. Some would debate the PS3 is more one than the other. Semantics aside, the door is wide open now. It doesn’t take much foresight to see something like TV shows and movies distributed simultaneously, if not exclusive, to consoles. Not the repackaged stuff like we see on Xbox Live right now, mind you. I’m talking about full on Battlestar Gallactica episodes for download the day it airs on TV. Commercial free? Who knows. The lines are now blurring. Interesting times ahead.
Via Lancaster Online
“Microsoft expects “Halo 3? — the conclusion to the sci-fi, man-vs.-alien juggernaut, to best the $151-million opening weekend of “Spider-Man 3? in a single day.”
That’s no surprise when you consider the unit price involved. Halo 3 will cost at least $60. A movie ticket is $10 or less. So, at least 6 times as many people would have to pay to see Spiderman 3 than buy Halo for the sales to be even. Plus console video games can be rented on the day of release unlike theatrical movie releases.
“In July alone, video games accounted for $925.5 million in sales nationwide.”
Those numbers are meaningless for the purposes of comparison without corresponding numbers for the movie industry. They are also meaningless if they include video game hardware sales which most of the inflated video game sales figures do.
“Who said this summer was a slump for video games?”
Without similar figures for other months for comparison, those figures could most certainly represent a slump in sales.
Halo 3 will be a killer. It may sell more copies than there are humans. Don’t ask me how it will do this, it will find a way. When something is that good, with that much hype, it can do anything.
Video games are a risky business though. You can lose a lot of money fast with a bad game. Some games are a sure thing though (Halo, Grand Theft Auto, Madden) and if you own the rights to one of those games: hold on! They will be a source of revenue for many years.
Movies are also risky, but it is easier to make a low-budget movie than a low-budget video game. Some low budget movies are actually good. I have never played a good low budget video game.
How can you compare $10 to $60 bucks OMG some people need School.
Leaving aside the obvious fanboyism of Ivan and Jimi up here..how about the more uh…cognitively developed among us here return to the point at hand.
Will the gaming industry surpass the movie industry in terms of revenues and reach? Yes. Will there be an adversarial relationship? No.
Unlike the conflicts occuring between Internet media-related idustries (which will also surpass TV and moviesin terms of reach…not too sure about revenue)and offline media industries..Games are easier for media industries to understand (comprehension to any intelligent level is another thing entirely).
Development is structured in similar ways. Distributed in similar ways. Marketed in similar ways. ( Mind you the gulf between similar and identical is wide in the details…which Warner Games..and other ill fated hollywood attempts in the game biz will attest)
I see in fact movies in the future being subsumed very gradually into the games biz until there is no difference.
Unbelieveable, yes? Remember those titans of radio? How they got swallowed by TV empires? ( okay actually none of you will reallly remember….)
“That’s no surprise when you consider the unit price involved. Halo 3 will cost at least $60. A movie ticket is $10 or less. So, at least 6 times as many people would have to pay to see Spiderman 3 than buy Halo for the sales to be even. Plus console video games can be rented on the day of release unlike theatrical movie releases.”
You are overanalyzing things here. Sure, at the unit level the costs is greater. But how many hours of entertainment per dollar do you get from either? Methinks games are the better bargain there. There’s a bigger picture here: gross dollar saturation of the market. Meaning, video games are getting a large piece of the pie.
“Those numbers are meaningless for the purposes of comparison without corresponding numbers for the movie industry. They are also meaningless if they include video game hardware sales which most of the inflated video game sales figures do.”
If you want box office sales numbers, here you go. For the month of July, box office sales are estimated to be around 1 billion (source: Nielsen EDI and Variety). This is considered the highpoint of the year for the movie industry. The 925.5 million figure does indeed include hardware sales, which I agree is a bit misleading. However, it is a 37% increase from last year’s figure. And since box office sales don’t exactly represent the entire Hollywood influence of sales of dvd hardware, dvd sales, concession, gas, etc… there is much more money involved there as well. The comparison isn’t one of “Hey we’re better than you.”, it is more of “hey, we’re making money too.”
“Without similar figures for other months for comparison, those figures could most certainly represent a slump in sales.”
The 37% figure I gave earlier is one indication that it is not a slump. Having one billion in sales in one month is certainly proof that the gaming market is viable, even during the movie peak times of summer where Hollywood throws everything it has to get people into the theater.
Again, the discussion is not about who’s better than who. It is about market penetration and recognition. A blockbuster game is just as viable as a blockbuster movie.
halo sucks , but halo sells …..
spiderman 3 sucks , spiderman 3 sells….
thats the only thing i see here
“But how many hours of entertainment per dollar do you get from either?”
That is a moot point to the specious claim that Halo 3 will best Spider-Man 3 in a single day. The fact is that even if that statement is true in terms of dollars spent, many more people will have experienced Spider Man 3 than Halo 3.
“Meaning, video games are getting a large piece of the pie.”
No, they aren’t because the two mediums aren’t really competing against one another for dollars. Relatively no one who buys Halo 3 is going forego seeing a movie they are interested in seeing due to the money spent on the game and vice versa. It might delay the spending on the movie or game, but it won’t replace it.
“The 925.5 million figure does indeed include hardware sales, which I agree is a bit misleading.”
That is extremely misleading as the box office figures don’t include DVD players or DVD sales.
“However, it is a 37% increase from last year’s figure.”
That increase may have much more to do with the recent console price cuts spurring sales than any surge in video game sales themselves.
“The comparison isn’t one of “Hey we’re better than you.”, it is more of “hey, we’re making money too.”
Thank you for that news, captain obvious. I don’t see anyone crying that the video game industry is on the verge of collapse although the MPAA does act like P2P file sharing is killing the movie industry.
“The 37% figure I gave earlier is one indication that it is not a slump.”
How about including that in the article next time to provide the whole story?
“Again, the discussion is not about who’s better than who.”
Microsoft seems to think it is by its specious claim that Halo 3 will exceed Spiderman 3’s opening day revenue.
“That is a moot point to the specious claim that Halo 3 will best Spider-Man 3 in a single day. The fact is that even if that statement is true in terms of dollars spent, many more people will have experienced Spider Man 3 than Halo 3.”
And your point being? Whether 2.5 million copies of Halo 3 are sold versus 15 million at 1/6th the cost, at the end of the day it’s about how much money you liberate from the consumer.
“No, they aren’t because the two mediums aren’t really competing against one another for dollars. Relatively no one who buys Halo 3 is going forego seeing a movie they are interested in seeing due to the money spent on the game and vice versa. It might delay the spending on the movie or game, but it won’t replace it.”
Yes they are worlds apart, but the funds there are not unlimited. To say video games aren’t taking potential from the movie industry is a fallacy. People have limited time and money. If the impact wasn’t noticable, then box office analysts wouldn’t continue to blame the internet and anti-social behaviors of teenagers and young adults for the recession of ticket sales.
“That is extremely misleading as the box office figures don’t include DVD players or DVD sales.”
No, that $925 million figure is exclusively for consoles & video games. I made a simple concession that it’s a mixed figure. A breakdown like that is irrelevant to the whole picture. Developers and console makers are intrinsically fated. You can’t have one without the other.
“That increase may have much more to do with the recent console price cuts spurring sales than any surge in video game sales themselves.”
Perhaps. But, how is this a bad thing? If more consoles sell, guess what? More games sell. Guess who wins? Both developers & console makers. Guess who depends on who? Do I really have to point out the obvious relationships here?
“Thank you for that news, captain obvious. I don’t see anyone crying that the video game industry is on the verge of collapse although the MPAA does act like P2P file sharing is killing the movie industry.”
Nice try Trolly Trollkins. Trying to derail another thread with your pedantic rubbish I see.
“How about including that in the article next time to provide the whole story?”
If you actually had any comprehension of what I had written, you would realize that I wasn’t focused at all on providing statistics or number breakdowns. Even the simplest of minds can comprehend that 1 billion is alot of money to throw around. Again, you can’t see past the end of your Trolly nose.
“Microsoft seems to think it is by its specious claim that Halo 3 will exceed Spiderman 3’s opening day revenue.
Oh, so I work for Microsoft now, eh? See that question mark in the title? Believe it or not it actually has purpose. In your case, it seems to have taken on the role of hook.
“And your point being?”
Good god, do I have to spell it out for you? My point it that despite Microsoft’s misleading prediction, Halo 3 will not be more popular than Spiderman 3. Not only that, but the number of people who experience Halo 3 won’t even be remotely close to that of Spiderman 3. Halo 3 will certainly be popular by video game standards, but by movie standards it would be a niche product. The video game industry likes to tout such misleading revenue figures like the one you published above verbatim without clarifying to portray itself as an equal player with movies in mainstream culture, but the fact is that it isn’t when you look at the actual number of consumers of each medium.
“If the impact wasn’t noticable, then box office analysts wouldn’t continue to blame the internet and anti-social behaviors of teenagers and young adults for the recession of ticket sales.”
That is the real fallacy. The real factors which depress box office receipts are high ticket prices, uninspiring and derivative movies, and the rise in popularity of home theaters and alternative means of acquiring and watching movies. Video game playing isn’t a factor even in those analysts’ eyes as I wouldn’t characterize the playing of video games as an internet phenomenon nor as anti-social behavior any more than watching television is.
“A breakdown like that is irrelevant to the whole picture. Developers and console makers are intrinsically fated. You can’t have one without the other.”
It’s not irrelevant any more than saying that DVD makers are fated to the movie industry to deliver product for their players. The truth is that the video game industry inflates its revenue figures by including hardware sales to inflate its relative importance.
“But, how is this a bad thing?”
It’s a bad thing because it gives a false impression of actual game sales. If idiots like you believe that the traditionally slow month of July has game sales which are that good, you may presume that sales for successive months will be even better. And, if you put your money where your misguided head is, you may artificially inflate the stock prices of video game software makers on that erroneous presumption of revenue. Such running up of their stocks because of such misinformation could lead to a subsequent crash.
“Do I really have to point out the obvious relationships here?”
No, because as usual you missed my obvious point which has nothing to do with that relationship.
“If you actually had any comprehension of what I had written, you would realize that I wasn’t focused at all on providing statistics or number breakdowns.”
If you actually understood the rubbish you had reprinted, you would see why it was misleading and certainly needed the additional statistics to provide clarity and accuracy.
“Even the simplest of minds can comprehend that 1 billion is alot of money to throw around.”
That is exactly why if the point of your article was merely to state that one billion dollars is a lot of money, you shouldn’t have wasted your time on it, captain obvious.
“Oh, so I work for Microsoft now, eh?”
Wow, you are a real imbecile. No, I didn’t say YOU think so. I said Microsoft thinks so.
@ Phil
Hmm yeah. Spiderman has been around for over 42 years with over 700 titles, action figures up the yang, and 3 smashing blockbuster movies. The Halo franchise started when the video game was released November 2001 (nearly 6 years ago just to help you out with your adding) with a couple of books that were somewhat popular. I think any reasonable person can say that the popularity of Halo is doing pretty well in comparison to the Spiderman Empire and will eventually have more fans if you give it some time (i.e. another 35 years or so to build). Stop hating Phil, it does not do anything but make you look like an A-hole.
Spider Man 3 took $890,243,184 worldwide in 108 days.
Something tells me that Halo 3 isn’t going to do that seeing as they would have to sell nearly 15m copies @ $60 each. I think Microsoft are getting a bit carried away.
dude! halo 3 will sell a ton but not nearly as much as any upcoming Wii titles like super smash bros brawl. It’ll sell but not that many people have an xbox 360 bcause its so friggin expensive. by the way ivan sony sucks microsofts butt and sony has only a few good games but the rest are just multi-platformers. so the bottom line is that halo 3 will sell big and sony sucks.
Hey Phil, you are wrong.
“Good god, do I have to spell it out for you? My point it that despite Microsoft’s misleading prediction, Halo 3 will not be more popular than Spiderman 3. Not only that, but the number of people who experience Halo 3 won’t even be remotely close to that of Spiderman 3. Halo 3 will certainly be popular by video game standards, but by movie standards it would be a niche product. The video game industry likes to tout such misleading revenue figures like the one you published above verbatim without clarifying to portray itself as an equal player with movies in mainstream culture, but the fact is that it isn’t when you look at the actual number of consumers of each medium.”
Well, I don’t have much to say at this point. The only difficulties I find in your argument is that you do not take into effect the fact that Halo 3 will be played by more people than the people that buy the game. In movie ticket sales, one ticket does not stand for 2 to 4 people. With Halo 3, people in the same household playing the same game do not need a copy for each person. Many more people will “experience” Halo 3 than will actually buy the game. On a heightened scale of this, gaming centers buy 10 or 12 copies of games, yes, but hundreds of people can play the game there without buying it. There are so many ways of playing it without buying it that it’s not possible that one could say that Spiderman 3 reaches more people without knowing exactly how many people are playing Halo 3, not buying it.
“That is the real fallacy. The real factors which depress box office receipts are high ticket prices, uninspiring and derivative movies, and the rise in popularity of home theaters and alternative means of acquiring and watching movies. Video game playing isn’t a factor even in those analysts’ eyes as I wouldn’t characterize the playing of video games as an internet phenomenon nor as anti-social behavior any more than watching television is.”
I actually agree with you there, although not because it was well argued. The layout of your sentences is convoluted.
“It’s not irrelevant any more than saying that DVD makers are fated to the movie industry to deliver product for their players. The truth is that the video game industry inflates its revenue figures by including hardware sales to inflate its relative importance.”
A video game console is part of the video game industry. I mean seriously, even a trucker moving furniture is part of the furniture industry; it’s just a different department. What about a florist selling pruning shears? It’s still part of the industry. The video game industry is perfectly in the right combining those numbers.
“It’s a bad thing because it gives a false impression of actual game sales. If idiots like you believe that the traditionally slow month of July has game sales which are that good, you may presume that sales for successive months will be even better. And, if you put your money where your misguided head is, you may artificially inflate the stock prices of video game software makers on that erroneous presumption of revenue. Such running up of their stocks because of such misinformation could lead to a subsequent crash.”
I’ve already shown that it’s not a bad thing, it’s just saying that the video game industry is growing, not that only video games are.
“If you actually understood the rubbish you had reprinted, you would see why it was misleading and certainly needed the additional statistics to provide clarity and accuracy.”
Steve’s argument was excellent. Yes, it could have done well to give the stats he gave some context. It could also do well for you to develop some manners.
“That is exactly why if the point of your article was merely to state that one billion dollars is a lot of money, you shouldn’t have wasted your time on it, captain obvious.”
Yeah, but that wasn’t his point, captain ignorant.
“Wow, you are a real imbecile. No, I didn’t say YOU think so. I said Microsoft thinks so.”
Don’t insult people when they’re smarter than you.
Have a nice day.
We as a human species tend to put so much expectations on things. On everything. Halo 3 will be a big dissapointment to alot of people becuase of this. With me, I don’t care how it turns out. I loved the Beta more then Halo 2, I did a hell of a lot better on it, and so If the campaign doesn’t live up to all we hoped, so what? The Multiplayer on Halo 2 is what made the game what it is. We have to learn to stop putting so much hype on all of these games, becuase they will not live up to our own personal expectations.
Of course, you can also blame the media for enforcing this into our heads also. That is what I do, and why I try not to pay too much attention to what is being said about Halo 3. Yes, I am a big fan, and am very excited for it, but if I sit and think about how great it will be and what not, I will end up being bored with it before I even play it.
That being said, Humans should die.
“The only difficulties I find in your argument is that you do not take into effect the fact that Halo 3 will be played by more people than the people that buy the game…There are so many ways of playing it without buying it that it’s not possible that one could say that Spiderman 3 reaches more people without knowing exactly how many people are playing Halo 3, not buying it.”
The same thing could be said for those that purchase or rent the DVD of a movie or watch it on pay-per-view or normal television. Sure households sometimes share a purchase of a game or a movie. Tnat phenomenon is not exclusive to video games, and actually is much more likely to be true of movies than games since movies have more universal appeal demographically. However, the cost of this game is at least six time the price of a movie ticket and likely at least three times the cost of the movie on DVD. So, even if a few people in one household shared a copy of the game, it still would not compare to the much larger number of those who view the movie using the many less expensive ways to do so in addition to purchasing a movie ticket.
“The layout of your sentences is convoluted.”
only to a simpleton like you
“A video game console is part of the video game industry…The video game industry is perfectly in the right combining those numbers.”
NO, it isn’t justified because the video game industry is aggregating its hardware and software revenue numbers and comparing them to only one facet of the movie industry’s “software” revenue, i.e. movie ticket sales. If the video game industry wants to make a truely fair comparison, then it should aggregate the various software (movie ticket and DVD sales) and hardware (dvd players) parts of the movie industry’s revenue when making the comparison to its own numbers. To put it in simple terms even you should be able to understand, the video game industry is comparing the sales of all of its types of products to the sales of only one of the movie industry’s types of products. Therefore, the comparison is not an fair one for the movie industry, and it falsely inflates the video game industry’s size in the market.
“I’ve already shown that it’s not a bad thing”
You’ve shown no such thing except that you are a gullible fool.
“Steve’s argument was excellent.”
It’s only excellent to an idiot like you. Anyone without your bias and stupidity would see that he is simply shilling for the video game industry by obfuscating the real facts to give a false impression of its market size and importance. His statement above that “Video games are fast becoming THE media standard for entertainment” is simply a specious claim that is not supported by the true revenue figures for both industries.
“Yeah, but that wasn’t his point, captain ignorant.”
Actually, moron, he claimed it was his point after I pointed out why his figures are misleading and his conclusion from them stated above is wrong.
“Don’t insult people when they’re smarter than you.”
I don’t need to worry about that with you or him because both of you are certainly NOT smarter than I, you dumbass.
“The only difficulties I find in your argument is that you do not take into effect the fact that Halo 3 will be played by more people than the people that buy the game…There are so many ways of playing it without buying it that it’s not possible that one could say that Spiderman 3 reaches more people without knowing exactly how many people are playing Halo 3, not buying it.”
The same thing could be said for those that purchase or rent the DVD of a movie or watch it on pay-per-view or normal television. Sure households sometimes share a purchase of a game or a movie. That phenomenon is not exclusive to video games, and actually is much more likely to be true of movies than games since movies have more universal appeal demographically. However, the cost of this game is at least six time the price of a movie ticket and likely at least three times the cost of the movie on DVD. So, even if a few people in one household shared a copy of the game, it still would not compare to the much larger number of those who view the movie using the many less expensive ways to do so in addition to purchasing a movie ticket.
“The layout of your sentences is convoluted.”
only to a simpleton like you
“A video game console is part of the video game industry…The video game industry is perfectly in the right combining those numbers.”
NO, it isn’t justified because the video game industry is aggregating its hardware and software revenue numbers and comparing them to only one facet of the movie industry’s “software” revenue, i.e. movie ticket sales. If the video game industry wants to make a truely fair comparison, then it should aggregate the various software (movie ticket and DVD sales) and hardware (DVD players) parts of the movie industry’s revenue when making the comparison to its own numbers. To put it in simple terms even you should be able to understand, the video game industry is comparing the sales of all of its types of products to the sales of only one of the movie industry’s types of products. Therefore, the comparison is not a fair one for the movie industry, and it falsely inflates the video game industry’s size in the market.
“I’ve already shown that it’s not a bad thing”
You’ve shown no such thing except that you are a gullible fool.
“Steve’s argument was excellent.”
It’s only excellent to an idiot like you. Anyone without your bias and stupidity would see that he is simply shilling for the video game industry by obfuscating the real facts to give a false impression of its market size and importance. His statement above that “Video games are fast becoming THE media standard for entertainment” is simply a specious claim that is not supported by the true revenue figures for both industries.
“Yeah, but that wasn’t his point, captain ignorant.”
Actually, moron, he claimed it was his point after I pointed out why his figures are misleading and his conclusion from them stated above is wrong.
“Don’t insult people when they’re smarter than you.”
I don’t need to worry about that with you or him, dumbass, because both of you are certainly NOT smarter than I.
Poor Phillip, we’ve shaken him to the point of psycho-babble. It’s sad to see the poor creature grasping at straws and cursing to itself. Reminds of a similar poor Tolkien-esque creature.
The only [human] mistakes made in this thread are ignoring the signs warning “Do not feed the Troll”.
“Poor Phillip, we’ve shaken him to the point of psycho-babble”
Steve, your supposed news article above and your and your boyfriend Jacob’s subsequent pathetic attempts to justify its specious claims are the only babbling here.
Look Microsoft believe they will beat the $151 million sales in the first day not outbeat spiderman 3 overall. I believe this a likely task as there is well over 1.5 million pre-orders and most people in the xbox live community havent even pr-ordering it but buying it at the midnight sales.
Im not being biest but stating my opinion.
Halo 3 is a game..
If you determine how many “true” gamers there are in the world compared to the total population that goes to the cinemas to watch a well expected movie, there is definatly ganna be a hell of a lot more movie viewers. True the game is worth 60 bucks and movie tickets worth 10, but microsoft want to beat the total sales gross, not to determine the popular entertainment as there are simply 10 million (approx) xboxs and a mere 20 mill aussies let alone the world.(sorry if im racist)
AND please dont tell me Halo 3 is overrated, it hasnt even came out for you to judge yet. I know it may not score a 10/10 while microsoft boast it 11/10 just wait and see for yourself, its got a lot of great content that other games dont, just ehar it out, wait till 25th of SEPT, then think about it.
Lonz has a good point don’t jugde the game now it hasn’t come out yet. Also its just like what some other guy said if the games not good it will be losing a lot of money. Same with a movie, its not like everyone who saw spiderman 3 loved it or even liked it, those people would eventually tell everyone what they thought about the movie. Exacly the same would happen with halo 3 if it turns out bad. It wont really matter to microsoft they will just make a better halo game later. the halo fans know that there are 7 halo rings. If halo 3 bums out then they have to work on it. But spiderman 3 might not have another movie no matter what anyone thinks they decide. But what happends if we imagine what happens if spiderman 3 was $60 and after 104 days everyone could compaire thurally between spiderman and halo 3. Then again spiderman 3 the movie starts selling DVD’s and it go’s to on demand for our tv’s that could bust up the cost to $60 in all. that matchs up to halo 3 phillip your smart calculate it and when halo 3 will be out for the 104th day expain what you then think about which one sells more. I am a halo fan but im trying to even things out a bit.
Hello is anyone there?
With all due respect to Steve, the author, in the greater scheme of things this is an interesting article on the potential revenue generated by Halo 3 by comparing, to the extent possible, the Spiderman 3 movie. To read the reactions and comments by some folks on this thread, in my opinion there is a bit of overreaction.
I for one believe its going to be more of the same old that was in Halo 2 and 1. I dont think its going to be anything special at all.
Why do you think that
For me Halo is the greatest game i’ve ever seen and i think Halo is way to better than spiderman and other games.I hope Microsoft make a movie fo the next year about Halo
.